On Re-Elect

It has been quite a long time again. My last blog post was during the recall, which was an awesome appetizer to today.
Oh, what a joy! Election Day in America!

Our electoral system is bogged down in skepticism, cynicism, and downright pessimistic narcissism. But on a day like today, I am still a young optimistic idealist – like I morphed out of Sorkin’s “The West Wing”. As I’ve done since 2000, I’ve put together my own little prognostication (formerly on ProjectDarkHorse.org).

I do not have a complication statistical model as I do not have the brain, funding, or time to put that together. Well, I might have the brain. Debatable. So my methodology is fairly simple.

40% – Nate Silver’s 538 Blog. This guy is a statistical genius and he has proved himself for years, in sports and politics. He outpaces every polling firm in the country. Rather than take a salary, I would probably pay money to work for this guy.

30% – Huffington Post & RealClearPolitics (RCP). These are the other two major poll aggregates in American Politics right now. There are a couple of others, but they are either unproven or severely biased. RCP is a clearly conservative-leaning group, but they are well-respected and dominant in the field. Unfortunately, they are also spineless in that their use of “toss-up” is thrown around more liberally than Joe Biden’s teeth whitening agent.

15% – Individual Polling - While the models mentioned above have their own weighting involved in assessing individual polls, I’ve reserved the right to tweak and add my own particulars to certain firms. For example, I often ignore polling conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) and Rasmussen because these are self-admittedly political driven polls. Their methodologies and sampling are not entirely flawed, so sometimes a mathematical model does not factor in the severity of an outlier.

10% – State Electoral Past. This is reserved to what I continue to dub the Sixth Party System in American Politics, which began with the Reagan Revolution in 1980. While current polls are obviously the primary control, independents and undecideds will usually regress back toward their geographical bend.

5% – Political Factors – This is where I factor in my own knowledge of state issues, demographics, and trends that are likely to accept the outcome. I could also be charged with a bias factor here, but I didn’t study political science for 8 years for nothing!

I don’t have any fancy graphics, so I do encourage to follow the links and visit some of these sites.

I am listing the states in order of my predicted margin of victory:

State: Winner, Winner % – Loser % (Electoral Vote Margin)
District of Columbia: Obama, 92.7-6.1 (3-0)
Utah: Romney, 71.2-28.2 (3-6)
Wyoming: Romney, 68.2-31.4 (3-9)
Oklahoma: Romney, 66.1-32.5 (3-16)
Idaho: Romney, 66.4-32.8 (3-20)
Hawaii: Obama, 65.1-32.4 (7-20)
Vermont: Obama, 64.4-30.2 (10-20)
Alabama: Romney, 63.1-35.9 (10-29)
Kansas: Romney, 62.6-36.4 (10-35)
Rhode Island: Obama, 62.4-36.8 (14-35)
New York: Obama, 61.8-37.9 (43-35)
Mississippi: Romney, 61.4-37.8 (43-41)
Maryland: Obama, 61.4-37.9 (53-41)
Alaska: Romney, 60.7-38.2 (53-44)
Delaware: Obama, 60.2-38.8 (56-44)
Massachusetts: Obama, 59.7-39.6 (67-44)
Louisiana: Romney, 60.4-38.8 (67-52)
Arkansas: Romney, 60.3-38.7 (67-58)

The rest of these states are well into the safe category, most having leads of well over ten points. A few fall into the single-digits, but when you factor in their electoral history and congressional delegations, these are not contestable states.

State: Winner, Winner % – Loser % (Electoral Vote Margin)
Illinois: Obama, 59.1-39.5 (87-58)
California: Obama, 58.9-40.3 (142-58)
West Virginia: Romney, 58.4-40.9 (142-63)
Kentucky: Romney, 58.1-41.4 (142-71)
Texas: Romney, 57.9-42.2 (142-109)
North Dakota: Romney, 57.2-42.4 (142-112)
Tennessee: Romney, 57.1-42.4 (142-123)
Washington: Obama, 56.2-42.1 (154-123)
Maine*: Obama, 56.7-42.8 (158-123)
South Dakota: Romney, 56.8-43.1 (158-126)
South Carolina: Romney, 56.8-43.1 (158-135)
Nebraska*: Romney, 56.2-43.1 (158-140)
Connecticut: Obama, 56.3-43.2 (165-140)
Georgia: Romney, 55.2-43.1 (165-156)
Indiana: Romney, 56.0-46.0 (165-167)
New Jersey: Obama, 55.1-43.9 (179-167)
New Mexico: Obama, 54.7-44.9 (184-167)
Minnesota: Obama, 54.4-45.1 (194-167)
Missouri: Romney, 54.3-45.2 (194-177)
Montana: Romney, 53.8-45.1 (194-180)
Oregon: Obama, 53.2-45.6 (201-180)
Pennsylvania: Obama, 53.4-46.1 (221-180)
Michigan: Obama, 53.3-45.6 (237-180)
Arizona: Romney, 53.4-46.2 (237-191)

The final group of states are the battleground states. These have been the bellwether states for over a year now and are definitely the final decider in choosing our next President:

State: Winner, Winner % – Loser % (Electoral Vote Margin)
Wisconsin: Obama, 52.9-46.6 (247-191)
Nevada: Obama, 52.8-47.1 (253-191)
Iowa: Obama, 51.6-48.1 (259-191)
North Carolina: Romney, 51.1-48.4 (259-206)
Ohio: Obama, 50.8-48.9 (277-206)
Virginia: Obama, 50.4-48.7 (290-206)
New Hampshire: Obama, 50.9-49.3 (294-206)
Colorado: Obama, 50.2-49.1 (303-206)
Florida: Romney, 50.4-49.3 (303-235)

Bill Clinton and Franklin Delano Roosevelt are the only two Democrats to get elected twice with over 300 Electoral Votes. FDR did it three times.

As you can see, not only has Ohio received the most media attention and campaign dollars in this cycle, but it also is the state that literally puts Obama over the 270 jump when you count up the electoral votes by margin of victory.

This is a margin of 68 votes, putting Romney’s “Swing Number” at 35. He would need to take Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire or Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and surprise in one of the other longer shot battleground states like Iowa and Nevada.

It is more likely that Obama swings Florida and wins by an even larger margin because reports yesterday put Obama as getting 73% of the Hispanic vote, besting the record by Bill Clinton in 1996. If he nears 75% of the Hispanic vote, he will win Florida with 50.8% of the vote.

More to come today, as the greatest day for America takes place!

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About Creed

I often ramble. What some people can eloquently say in 10 words, when most people would take 25, I will intentionally take 100. It's always been this way. This blog is mainly to spare my friends, family, and co-workers from my epic long rants.
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2 Responses to On Re-Elect

  1. tmcheesebrow says:

    Seriously….we should just hang out

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